Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(8:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-33-N.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model