Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 17

(15:00) 9-R.Gould punts 47 yards to LA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-13-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model