Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(12:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SF 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 17-T.Benjamin ran ob at SF 23 for 14 yards (32-T.Howard).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model