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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 8-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.53 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model