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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to LA 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-B.Powell to LA 39 for 9 yards (81-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model