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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at TEN 15 for 8 yards (33-A.Moore). Punt Hangtime: 4.37s

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model