Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 16. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at TEN 17 for 1 yard (24-T.Smith). Punt Hangtime: 3.1 sec

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.26 EP
70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model