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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-D.King. Punt Hangtime: 4.49s

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP