Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 41 for 13 yards (21-M.Farley). PENALTY on TEN-33-J.Wilkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 41. Punt Hangtime: 4.09 sec

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model