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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 14-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model