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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 50

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 32 for 24 yards (26-R.Freeman). PENALTY on TEN-35-C.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 12. Punt Hangtime: 4.46s

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model