Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 95

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

(4:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 46, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to NYG 46 for 8 yards (53-O.Ximines; 55-R.Ragland).

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.25 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 95, worth -5.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model