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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 48

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model