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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to WAS 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to WAS 31 for 12 yards (39-E.Penny; 20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model