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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 65

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to WAS 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model