4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 51

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at WAS 40 for 11 yards (52-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model