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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 5

Washington Commanders 19 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP