Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 81

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to WAS 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-D.Carter. PENALTY on NYG-47-C.Brown, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.30 EP
74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model