4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 78

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to WAS 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for no gain (31-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model