Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 74

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 0

(11:33) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NYG 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-A.Bachman to NYG 34 for 16 yards (45-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.87 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model