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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to ARI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 13-C.Kirk MUFFS catch, and recovers at ARI 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model