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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Arizona Cardinals 8

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model