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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Arizona Cardinals 11

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 8-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model