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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 11 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 85-A.Wesley.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model