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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 51

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 11 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.98 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model