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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 45

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to BUF 26 for 19 yards (24-Ta.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model