4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 33

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model