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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 47

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model