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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 93

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to BUF 43, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 93, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 51, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP