4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon pushed ob at BUF 20 for 20 yards (30-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model