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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model