4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to KC 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-M.Hughes to KC 39 for 15 yards (46-Jaq.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP