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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to BUF 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model