Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 85

Buffalo Bills 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(11:44) 3-M.Haack punts 46 yards to KC 39, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-T.Hill to BUF 16 for 45 yards (3-M.Haack; 9-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model