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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at KC 24 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model