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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP