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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 3-M.Haack punts 50 yards to KC 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model