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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to LA 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell to LA 49 for 21 yards (49-C.Gill, 32-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.15 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model