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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model