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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 8-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model