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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP