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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 88

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to LA 39, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell ran ob at TB 28 for 33 yards (98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.58 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP