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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-S.Miller to LA 13 for 16 yards (11-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP