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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for 5 yards (18-B.Skowronek). TB-1-J.Darden was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model