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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP