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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 27
What Actually Happened
(:46) 7-L.Fournette right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.56 EP
What Happened
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.84 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK
+2.66 EP
Model's Pick
- 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT
-0.03 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
