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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 8-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to LA 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell to LA 29 for 6 yards (48-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model