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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:37) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model