Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:19) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to SF 28, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 34 for 6 yards (19-E.St. Brown, 42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.41 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model