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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to SF 23, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP